Headlines around the U.S. this morning are celebrating the death of Osama bin Laden. Anyone currently serving on active duty in the military along with their families and friends, anyone who is a veteran or anyone who knows one, is probably feeling a sense of understandable pride in the success of Seal Team 6 (not a real unit but rather a name used for reference purposes) who in 40 minutes completed a job that was begun a decade ago. Families, friends and co-workers of the almost 3000 who died in the September 11th attacks are experiencing both the satisfaction and the renewed grief of remembered pain that occurs when a murderer is brought to justice.
We needed this. We needed a victory, even a symbolic one, after our ten year investment of American blood and treasure to fight an enemy with no home country and no professional army – an enemy that, for millions of Americans, bore the visage of Osama bin Laden. Had we achieved this victory ten years ago, the history of the past decade would be quite different.
If only it ended here. If only by killing one person whom we have named the personification of evil could we eliminate evil itself and go on about our business as usual. If only by declaring anyone evil who opposes us, whether they are devoutly (if insanely) religious zealots willing to sacrifice their lives in any attempt to do us harm, or patriotic citizens of other countries whose governments are opposed to our own or whose business interests run contrary to ours, could we guarantee the participation of the Almighty in furthering our own cause.
We should know by now that things just aren’t that simple. To invoke “evil” in any conflict is to cease trying to understand cause and effect and it is to abrogate any responsibility for the circumstances which led to the conflict. The circumstances of our conflict with Islamic fundamentalists can be traced from the main streets of Hiawassee and Young Harris all the way to Constitution Avenue in Washington and indeed, to all the capitols of the developed world.
Please don’t misunderstand me. We are not the “Great Satan” either. We are an enterprising and industrious people and we have been incredibly successful. However, the phenomenal growth of our population and our affluence was fueled by oil, and the largest deposits of oil in the world just happen to exist in the middle of the area which hosts three of the world’s largest religions. In order to guarantee our oil supply, we have manipulated events, staged coups, supported dictators and fielded armies in this area since World War One. Long memories of oppression and exploitation magnified by religious zeal have produced, and will continue to produce, enemies with which we must contend.
War has always, at its root, been primarily a conflict over resources and economic power. Religion and nationalism and the conflict between good and evil inspire the troops and mobilize the citizens, but these things are the public face of the conflict more than the genesis. We are entering a transitional phase in the history of the world where the ability of the planet to support its burgeoning population in the lifestyle to which the western world has become accustomed, is declining. Competition for hydrocarbons, oil, coal, natural gas, will continue and escalate, but our lifestyle is also dependent on other commodities as well – steel, copper, concrete, lumber and rare earths, not to mention food, and, at the center of the next resource wars, water.
Conflict is inevitable. As a simple but devastating proof, I offer an example provided by Jeremy Grantham, Chief Investment Strategist of GMO Inc. Using ancient Egypt, with 3000 years of history, as an example, suppose we gave every Egyptian 3000 years ago 1 cubic yard of material wealth. Then for the sake of argument, let’s say that we grew that economy at a compounded interest rate of 4.5%, which is a number popular with American economic planners today. How much wealth would Egypt have 3000 years later? The answer might astound you, but that amount of material wealth would not fit within our solar system, nor a billion more like it.
In conclusion, Osama bin Laden is gone, but as population growth leads to privation and privation inspires religious fundamentalism, there will be more just like him. We may call them evil, but the true enemy is compounded growth and a culture that is geared to growth rather than sustainability.
